How does AI think EV battery technology will evolve?

During January I caught up with a colleague for lunch and on a rare sunny Sydney summer day and we discussed many things fleet management including the future values of electric vehicles. The big questions were, what will they be worth in five years? Will there be a significant price impact on first generation battery technology when third and fourth generation technology is being sold new?

In my view, I think there will always be a market for second hand EVs at all price points. After living through the GFC selling ex-fleet cars in a market that wasn’t buying, there was always a floor price for older high kilometre vehicles. This will apply to EVs as well.

My colleague was less optimistic and saw the depreciation curve on electric cars falling drastically each time there was a new technological advancement.

Feeling the topic hadn’t been resolved, my colleague decided to bring AI into the discussion to find out how EV battery technology has changed in recent years and what was expected to happen over the next decade.

Is the EV battery technology in 2024 the same as it was in 2019, broadly speaking?

ChatGPT: No, electric vehicle (EV) battery technology in 2024 is not the same as it was in 2019. Over the past five years, there have been significant advancements and developments in this field. Some of the key changes and improvements include:

1. Energy Density: Modern EV batteries have higher energy density, which means they can store more energy in the same amount of space. This results in longer driving ranges without increasing the physical size or weight of the battery.
2. Battery Chemistry: There have been changes in battery chemistry, with a shift towards materials that are more efficient, sustainable, and less reliant on rare or costly elements like cobalt. For instance, there’s a growing interest in solid-state batteries, which promise higher energy densities and faster charging times.
3. Charging Speed: Advances in battery technology have also led to faster charging times. Developments in battery management systems and charging infrastructure have contributed to reducing the time it takes to recharge an EV.
4. Sustainability and Lifecycle: The focus on sustainability has increased, with more attention on the full lifecycle of the battery, including recyclability and the sourcing of materials. Efforts to make batteries more environmentally friendly are ongoing.
5. Cost Reduction: Due to advancements in technology and economies of scale, the cost of EV batteries has decreased significantly, making electric vehicles more accessible to a broader range of consumers.
6. Thermal Management: Improvements in thermal management systems have led to better performance and longevity of batteries, especially under varying environmental conditions.
7. Safety: There have been continuous improvements in safety features to reduce risks such as overheating and battery fires.

These advancements reflect a rapidly evolving field, driven by growing demand for electric vehicles, environmental concerns, and technological innovation. As a result, the EV batteries in 2024 are more advanced, efficient, and effective compared to those in 2019.

What could the expected changes be in 2029 based on the current pace of battery development and new technology?

ChatGPT: Predicting the expected changes in electric vehicle (EV) battery technology by 2029, based on the current pace of development and emerging technologies, we can anticipate several significant advancements:

1. Solid-State Batteries: Solid-state batteries are expected to become more prevalent by 2029. These batteries use solid electrolytes instead of liquid ones, offering higher energy densities, faster charging times, and improved safety. They could significantly extend the range of EVs and reduce charging times to be comparable to filling up a tank with petrol.
2. Energy Density Improvements: Continued improvements in energy density will likely mean that batteries will store more energy for their size and weight. This could further extend the range of EVs, potentially making them capable of travelling distances comparable to or even exceeding that of conventional petrol vehicles on a single charge.
3. Cost Reductions: The cost of EV batteries is expected to continue falling due to advancements in technology and increased production scale. This will make EVs more affordable and competitive with traditional internal combustion engine vehicles.
4. Advanced Battery Chemistries: New battery chemistries, potentially moving away from lithium-ion to alternatives like lithium-sulphur or metal-air batteries, could emerge. These new chemistries might offer advantages in terms of energy capacity, weight, and environmental impact.
5. Improved Charging Infrastructure: With the advancement in battery technology, we can expect parallel improvements in charging infrastructure. Ultra-fast charging technology might become widespread, allowing EVs to be charged in minutes rather than hours.
6. Sustainability and Recycling: There will likely be a greater emphasis on the sustainability of battery production, including the use of more environmentally friendly materials and processes. Battery recycling technologies will also become more advanced, helping to reduce the environmental impact of EVs throughout their lifecycle.
7. Battery Management Systems (BMS): Advances in BMS will optimise battery performance, longevity, and safety. These systems will become more sophisticated, using AI and machine learning to adapt to various driving conditions and usage patterns.
8. Wider Application of Battery Technology: Beyond personal transportation, EV battery technology will continue to expand into other areas such as commercial transport, aviation, and grid storage, driving further innovations.
9. Customisable and Modular Batteries: There might be developments towards more customisable and modular battery systems, allowing for easier upgrades and replacements, and potentially enabling users to choose a battery that best fits their specific range and performance needs.

These predictions are based on current trends and ongoing research in battery technology. However, the pace of technological advancements can be influenced by various factors, including economic conditions, regulatory changes, and breakthroughs in materials science or engineering. Therefore, while these developments are likely, the exact trajectory of EV battery technology could vary.