The California Air Resources Board (C.A.R.B) has drawn a hard line in the sand at which point the State will completely ban the sale of Diesel-powered trucks.
The Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) regulation, part of the C.A.R.B’s broader strategy to accelerate the transition to 100% Zero-Emission Vehicles (ZEV) will see strict targets set to progressively transition fleets and government vehicles to 100% ZEV’s by 2042.
California State Regulators recently approved a ban on the sale of trucks and buses that run on diesel, by 2036.
California’s unenviable title of the state with the worst air pollution in the USA has long driven stringent emission guidelines and compliance regulations to address the problem. It’s believed that these latest regulations will accelerate air quality benefits. The latest ACF regulations are also expected to deliver $26.5-billion in statewide health benefits from reduced pollutant emissions.
Beginning with drayage, or container trucks as we refer to them. All trucks carrying out operations at California’s sea-ports or rail intermodal yards must meet strict new guidelines.
The regulations will affect high priority fleets with a turnover in excess of 50-million dollars in gross annual revenue or have in excess of 50-trucks, as well as all government agency vehicles.
ZEV timeline
- Starting from 31/12/2023 all Internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles (diesel) must be registered with C.A.R.B
- From 1/1/2024 only ZEV’s can be registered with C.A.R.B
- From 2024, all non-ZEV’s in the C.A.R.B system fitted with a 2010 or later model engine can remain in the system until they reach the end of their useful life at 800,000 miles or the engine becomes older than 18-years, whichever comes first.
- Beginning 2025, any non-ZEV trucks will be removed from the C.A.R.B system if they do not meet the minimum (one visit to a regulated sea-port or rail terminal per year) annual requirement or have reached the end of their useful life.
- From 2036, all new vehicles sold must be ZEV’s
As part of the ACF regulation, the 100% ZEV sales requirement was moved forward to 2036 from the original 2040 start date. This change means that all vehicles sold in California would need to be ZEV’s starting in 2036.
While the ACF regulations are currently limited to California, it’s widely believed that many other states will adopt similar regulations as manufacturers steer their technology to suit all potential markets, nationwide.
Trucking associations have been critical of the regulations, citing they have worked significantly to reduce emissions but need more flexibility. Some say that C.A.R.B are setting unrealistic targets and unachievable timelines which will lead to increased costs.
Regardless of the popularity of the regulations, they do set out a clear timeline for 100% ZEV sales. Additionally, the mandates provide reassurance to charging or refueling providers, instilling confidence in future infrastructure investment and development to compliment advancing technologies.
Looking forward, as truck manufacturers adopt technologies to suit global markets, the ACF regulations and others, may well drive the direction of truck manufacturing, world-wide.
With strict regulations as described above, and working on five year lease parameters, I would envisage that the decline of ICE trucks could substantially wane as early as 2030.
Putting aside the greater initial purchase cost of a ZEV, which may be off-set by reduced running costs, I would think that a diesel-powered truck purchased in 2030 would suffer a more significant depreciation hit by 2035, compared to a comparable ZEV, given that, in California, at least, that ICE truck would be severely limited in its usability after that time. This accelerated asset devaluation may well influence heavy-vehicle sales and manufacturing, well before the mandated schedules.
