Victoria’s transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is gaining momentum, with the state’s electricity networks preparing for a rapid increase in EV adoption that will reshape demand patterns and investment priorities over the coming years.
According to AusNet’s new Electric Vehicle Strategy 2026 to 2031, released in January 2025, the number of EVs connected to its distribution network is forecast to leap from 11,000 vehicles in 2024 to 245,000 vehicles by 2031. This acceleration aligns with the Victorian Government’s Zero Emissions Vehicle Roadmap, which targets 50% of light vehicle sales to be zero emissions by 2030.
AusNet, which operates Victoria’s largest distribution network covering 25.3% of customers, is investing proactively to ensure its grid is ready to support this rapid electrification of transport.
EV Load to Drive Investment and Innovation
The impact of widespread EV charging on Victoria’s electricity grid will be significant. AusNet forecasts that by 2031, EVs will contribute 3% of the total network peak demand, rising to 5% by 2035. In total, EV charging is expected to add 60MW of new peak demand by 2031 — more than half of the 110MW of additional load growth anticipated from electrification overall (which also includes the transition from gas heating and hot water).
To manage this, AusNet has proposed $120 million in network capital investment to ensure reliable supply as EV numbers grow. This includes:
- Augmentation of low voltage networks, including upgrades to distribution substations.
- Strengthening of medium voltage (MV) Single Wire Earth Return (SWER) lines, which are common in regional areas.
- Targeted upgrades to zone substations and sub-transmission infrastructure.
Without these upgrades, AusNet modelling indicates that the network could face unacceptable levels of unserved energy at:
- 1,200 distribution substations
- 95 SWER lines
- 8 zone substations
- 4 sub-transmission lines
Delays in upgrading the network could hinder customers’ ability to purchase or charge EVs and undermine Victoria’s policy targets, while widening inequalities between regional and urban communities in access to reliable EV charging.
Victoria’s Ambitious Policy Targets
The Victorian Government has set some of the most ambitious EV adoption targets in Australia:
- 400 ZEVs in the Victorian Government fleet by 2023 (achieved)
- Statewide rollout of EV charging stations across regional Victoria by 2024
- All public transport bus purchases to be ZEVs from 2025
- 50% of light vehicle sales to be ZEVs by 2030
- Net zero emissions for Victoria by 2045 (five years ahead of the national target)
With transport accounting for 25% of Victoria’s carbon emissions, transitioning the vehicle fleet is a crucial part of achieving the state’s net zero goal.
Consumer Demand Driving Change
AusNet’s consumer research highlights strong demand for EVs among its customers. A public webinar in June 2023 revealed that:
- Over 20% of all households intend to purchase an EV within the next five years.
- Households with rooftop solar are more likely to adopt EVs, forming an early adopter cohort leading growth.
- Most customers currently prefer to charge their EVs overnight, but AusNet will continue to monitor whether midday charging grows in popularity as daytime energy becomes cheaper through solar generation.
Importantly, AusNet’s planning assumes that only 5% of EVs will be under active third-party management or orchestration (such as being shifted to charge at off-peak times), reflecting customer preferences for control over their charging.
Innovation to Support the Transition
AusNet is also trialling innovative solutions to better integrate EVs into the grid and support customers, including:
- Flexible demand trials with controllable EV chargers to manage network load and improve utilisation.
- Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) and Vehicle-to-Home (V2H) trials to explore the use of EV batteries as backup power during outages.
- A Consumer Energy Resources (CER) toolbox to help customers assess the benefits of solar, storage, electrification and EVs.
These trials will help AusNet understand customer behaviour, technology capabilities and optimal strategies for EV integration.
Planning for Flexibility and Uncertainty
While AusNet’s forecasts are aligned to AEMO’s step change scenario and Victoria’s government targets, the company acknowledges there is significant uncertainty around the pace of EV adoption. External forecasts, such as AEMO’s projections, have changed substantially year-on-year, making it essential that regulatory frameworks remain flexible enough to accommodate faster-than-expected growth.
“Regular changes in external forecasts highlight the case for more flexibility in the regulatory framework, so networks are able to accommodate EV uptake and continue to provide customers with a good level of service,” AusNet stated.
The Road Ahead
The transition to electric vehicles in Victoria is well underway, but delivering on the state’s targets will require a sustained focus on network readiness and customer experience.
For Fleet Managers, Sustainability Managers, and Finance Managers overseeing corporate fleet decarbonisation, AusNet’s strategy offers an important signal: network capacity is being built to support mass EV adoption, but proactive planning is essential.
Organisations rolling out EV fleets should:
- Engage early with their electricity distributor about fleet charging plans, particularly for depots and large-scale charging hubs.
- Monitor emerging smart charging and orchestration solutions, which may offer flexibility incentives.
- Stay informed on network upgrade programs to ensure reliable supply for fleet operations.
- Factor potential regional disparities into deployment plans, particularly if operating across both metro and rural Victoria.
Victoria’s policy ambition is clear — and with AusNet and other networks now investing to prepare the grid, the opportunity for fleets to transition is stronger than ever.
