Across Australia’s fleet sector, one hesitation keeps resurfacing: we’ll wait until the batteries get better. On the surface, it sounds sensible. Battery costs are falling, technology is improving and vehicle choice is expanding. Why lock in now?
That question was tackled head-on during a late-2025 webinar hosted by the Australasian Fleet Management Association and sponsored by JET Charge. The session, focused on commercial vehicles and vans, reached a different conclusion: for many fleets, waiting carries its own cost — operationally, financially and strategically.
The trap of perpetual improvement
Battery technology will improve. No one on the webinar disputed that. But as JET Charge Director of Major Projects Alex Bowler pointed out, waiting for the next generation can become a never-ending cycle.
“If you wait, you’re going to benefit from more industry experience, better technology, lower costs,” Bowler said. “But you also need to consider what the benefit is of transitioning some or part of your fleet sooner.”
The issue is opportunity cost. Every year spent waiting is a year without real operational data, without charging experience, and without understanding how electrification fits into a fleet’s own duty cycles.
Electric fleets reward learning, not perfection
One of the strongest themes from the webinar was that electrification is not a single purchase decision — it is a learning process.
Movement Founder and Director Mark Gjerek explained that electric vehicles behave very differently from diesel assets when it comes to economics.
“Typically, EVs have lower variable costs… but they have higher fixed cost, like the capital cost of buying the truck,” he said. “The key to making an EV work against a diesel is to minimise the higher fixed costs and maximise the lower variable cost.”
That optimisation doesn’t happen in theory. It happens through real use: understanding actual kilometres travelled, dwell time, payload impacts and charging behaviour. Fleets that delay entry delay that learning curve.
Charging experience matters more than battery size
Another reason fleets cite for waiting is concern about range and charging speed. Yet the webinar made it clear that charging strategy often matters more than battery capacity.
Bowler warned that electricity needs to be treated with the same discipline as diesel.
“If you’re not putting the same rigour of cost control onto electricity as you do on petrol or diesel, you’re throwing money away into the gutter,” he said.
Early adopters gain practical insight into:
- How much overnight charging actually covers daily operations
- When opportunity charging is needed — and when it isn’t
- How energy tariffs and timing affect operating costs
These lessons remain valuable even as batteries improve. Fleets that wait for “perfect” batteries often discover they are also starting from zero on charging capability.
Grants and incentives won’t wait forever
Policy timing also plays a role. Government support is designed to accelerate early adoption, not reward late movers.
Alex Grant, Director of Zero Emission Vehicle Strategy Implementation at the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, described the intent behind funding programs.
“ARENA provides grant funding to projects to take on risk and to prove out the technical and commercial challenges,” Grant said.
Those opportunities are often time-limited and competitive. Fleets that wait may find incentives have shifted, narrowed or disappeared — increasing the cost of entry rather than reducing it.
Market pressure is already building
Even without regulation, customer expectations are changing. Many transport operators are now responding to pressure from clients with their own emissions targets.
Waiting for better batteries does not pause that pressure. It simply delays a fleet’s ability to respond with confidence when customers ask difficult questions about emissions, reporting or transition timelines.
As Gjerek noted during the session, electrification is not about replacing every diesel truck overnight.
“It’s not about yes or no,” he said. “It’s about where you start, and how well you design it.”
Early moves don’t lock fleets into old technology
A common fear is that adopting now means being stuck with outdated technology. The webinar challenged that assumption.
Most fleets already manage assets with staggered replacement cycles. Early electric vehicles do not prevent later upgrades — but they do create internal capability, data and confidence that newer vehicles can build on.
As Bowler observed, “there is a challenge in just getting charging infrastructure in and installed,” and integrating it into operations takes time. Fleets that start small now are better positioned to scale later, regardless of how batteries evolve.
Waiting has a cost too
The message from the AFMA webinar was not alarmist. No one suggested fleets rush headlong into electrification without analysis. But it did underline a key shift in thinking: doing nothing is no longer a neutral option.
Waiting for better batteries may avoid today’s imperfections, but it can also mean:
- Missing out on incentives
- Delaying organisational learning
- Falling behind customer expectations
- Facing steeper transition costs later
For many fleets, the smarter move is not to wait for the perfect battery — but to start building the capability to use whatever battery comes next.
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